Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Rayo Majadahonda vs Real Unión — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Rayo Majadahonda
Rayo Majadahonda
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Real Unión
Real Unión
3/9/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 27Miniestadio Cerro del Espino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Rayo Majadahonda46%
×Draw27%
Real Unión27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayo Majadahonda
1.42
Real Unión
1.02

Rayo Majadahonda creates 39% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 56 away

creates per match

Rayo Majadahonda
1.17
Real Unión
0.98

allows per match

Rayo Majadahonda
1.07
Real Unión
1.66

finishing

Rayo Majadahonda+0.00on par
Real Unión+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Majadahonda ↓

Real Unión →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Rayo Majadahonda or draw
73%
Rayo Majadahonda or Real Unión
73%
Draw or Real Unión
54%

Winning margin

Rayo Majadahonda wins by 2+
22%
Real Unión wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Rayo Majadahonda 1+ goals
76%
Rayo Majadahonda 2+ goals
41%
Rayo Majadahonda 3+ goals
17%
Real Unión 1+ goals
64%
Real Unión 2+ goals
27%
Real Unión 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Rayo Majadahonda (draw refunded)
63%
Real Unión (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Majadahonda at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.07 · 69 matches

Real Unión away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.66 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Majadahonda attack 1.17 + Real Unión defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.42

Real Unión attack 0.98 + Rayo Majadahonda defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rayo Majadahonda scores more
46%
level
27%
Real Unión scores more
27%

Rayo Majadahonda at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Rayo Majadahonda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rayo Majadahonda vs Real Unión

Rayo Majadahonda and Real Unión drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Miniestadio Cerro del Espino in Majadahonda.