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Rayo Majadahonda vs Real Sociedad II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Rayo Majadahonda
Rayo Majadahonda
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Real Sociedad II
Real Sociedad II
2/11/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 23Miniestadio Cerro del Espino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Rayo Majadahonda36%
×Draw30%
Real Sociedad II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayo Majadahonda
1.04
Real Sociedad II
1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 38 away

creates per match

Rayo Majadahonda
1.17
Real Sociedad II
0.92

allows per match

Rayo Majadahonda
1.07
Real Sociedad II
0.92

finishing

Rayo Majadahonda+0.00on par
Real Sociedad II+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Majadahonda ↓

Real Sociedad II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Rayo Majadahonda or draw
66%
Rayo Majadahonda or Real Sociedad II
70%
Draw or Real Sociedad II
64%

Winning margin

Rayo Majadahonda wins by 2+
14%
Real Sociedad II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Rayo Majadahonda 1+ goals
65%
Rayo Majadahonda 2+ goals
28%
Rayo Majadahonda 3+ goals
9%
Real Sociedad II 1+ goals
63%
Real Sociedad II 2+ goals
26%
Real Sociedad II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Rayo Majadahonda (draw refunded)
51%
Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Majadahonda at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.07 · 69 matches

Real Sociedad II away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.92 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Majadahonda attack 1.17 + Real Sociedad II defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.04

Real Sociedad II attack 0.92 + Rayo Majadahonda defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Rayo Majadahonda scores more
36%
level
30%
Real Sociedad II scores more
34%

Rayo Majadahonda at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Rayo Majadahonda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Rayo Majadahonda 1–1 Real Sociedad II

Rayo Majadahonda and Real Sociedad II drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on February 11, 2024.

The match was played at Miniestadio Cerro del Espino in Majadahonda.