Rayo Majadahonda 1–0 Real Madrid II: Result & Stats

Rayo Majadahonda

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Real Madrid II

11/15/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 3Miniestadio Cerro del Espino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Rayo Majadahonda43%

×Draw29%

Real Madrid II28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rayo MajadahondaExpected goals in this matchReal Madrid II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.96

Rayo Majadahonda

1.25

Real Madrid II

0.96

Rayo Majadahonda creates 30% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

1.08

creates per match

1.33

0.58

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Rayo Majadahonda

1.08

Real Madrid II

1.33

allows per match

Rayo Majadahonda

0.58

Real Madrid II

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rayo Majadahonda+0.00on par

Real Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Majadahonda ↓

Real Madrid II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Rayo Majadahonda or draw

72%

Rayo Majadahonda or Real Madrid II

71%

Draw or Real Madrid II

57%

Winning margin

Rayo Majadahonda wins by 2+

19%

Real Madrid II wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Rayo Majadahonda 1+ goals

71%

Rayo Majadahonda 2+ goals

36%

Rayo Majadahonda 3+ goals

13%

Real Madrid II 1+ goals

62%

Real Madrid II 2+ goals

25%

Real Madrid II 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Rayo Majadahonda (draw refunded)

60%

Real Madrid II (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Majadahonda at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.58 · 12 matches

Real Madrid II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Majadahonda attack 1.08 + Real Madrid II defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.25

Real Madrid II attack 1.33 + Rayo Majadahonda defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rayo Majadahonda scores more

43%

level

29%

Real Madrid II scores more

28%

Rayo Majadahonda at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rayo Majadahonda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rayo Majadahonda vs Real Madrid II

Rayo Majadahonda beat Real Madrid II 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 5 on November 15, 2020.

The match was played at Miniestadio Cerro del Espino in Majadahonda.

Rayo Majadahonda vs Real Madrid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 5 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Rayo Majadahonda vs Real Madrid II