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Rayo Majadahonda vs Racing Santander — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Rayo Majadahonda
Rayo Majadahonda
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Racing Santander
Racing Santander
4/23/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 33Miniestadio Cerro del Espino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Rayo Majadahonda34%
×Draw27%
Racing Santander38%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayo Majadahonda
1.19
Racing Santander
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 19 away

creates per match

Rayo Majadahonda
1.17
Racing Santander
1.47

allows per match

Rayo Majadahonda
1.07
Racing Santander
1.21

finishing

Rayo Majadahonda+0.00on par
Racing Santander+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Majadahonda ↓

Racing Santander →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Rayo Majadahonda or draw
62%
Rayo Majadahonda or Racing Santander
73%
Draw or Racing Santander
66%

Winning margin

Rayo Majadahonda wins by 2+
14%
Racing Santander wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Rayo Majadahonda 1+ goals
70%
Rayo Majadahonda 2+ goals
33%
Rayo Majadahonda 3+ goals
12%
Racing Santander 1+ goals
72%
Racing Santander 2+ goals
36%
Racing Santander 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Rayo Majadahonda (draw refunded)
47%
Racing Santander (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Majadahonda at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.07 · 69 matches

Racing Santander away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Majadahonda attack 1.17 + Racing Santander defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Racing Santander attack 1.47 + Rayo Majadahonda defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Rayo Majadahonda scores more
34%
level
27%
Racing Santander scores more
38%

Racing Santander at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Racing Santander will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rayo Majadahonda vs Racing Santander

Racing Santander beat Rayo Majadahonda 4-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on April 23, 2022.

The match was played at Miniestadio Cerro del Espino in Majadahonda.