Rayo Majadahonda 0–1 Ponferradina: Result & Stats

Rayo Majadahonda

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ponferradina

4/6/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 31Miniestadio Cerro del Espino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Rayo Majadahonda35%

×Draw31%

Ponferradina35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rayo MajadahondaExpected goals in this matchPonferradina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

Rayo Majadahonda

1.01

Ponferradina

1.01

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 57 away

1.17

creates per match

0.95

1.07

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Rayo Majadahonda

1.17

Ponferradina

0.95

allows per match

Rayo Majadahonda

1.07

Ponferradina

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rayo Majadahonda+0.00on par

Ponferradina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Majadahonda ↓

Ponferradina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Rayo Majadahonda or draw

65%

Rayo Majadahonda or Ponferradina

69%

Draw or Ponferradina

65%

Winning margin

Rayo Majadahonda wins by 2+

13%

Ponferradina wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Rayo Majadahonda 1+ goals

64%

Rayo Majadahonda 2+ goals

27%

Rayo Majadahonda 3+ goals

8%

Ponferradina 1+ goals

64%

Ponferradina 2+ goals

27%

Ponferradina 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Rayo Majadahonda (draw refunded)

50%

Ponferradina (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Majadahonda at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.07 · 69 matches

Ponferradina away — creates 0.95, concedes 0.86 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Majadahonda attack 1.17 + Ponferradina defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.01

Ponferradina attack 0.95 + Rayo Majadahonda defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Rayo Majadahonda scores more

35%

level

31%

Ponferradina scores more

35%

Rayo Majadahonda at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Rayo Majadahonda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff