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Rayo Majadahonda vs Melilla — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Rayo Majadahonda
Rayo Majadahonda
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Melilla
Melilla
10/20/2019Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 9Miniestadio Cerro del Espino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Rayo Majadahonda48%
×Draw25%
Melilla27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayo Majadahonda
1.55
Melilla
1.10

Rayo Majadahonda creates 41% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 14 away

creates per match

Rayo Majadahonda
1.17
Melilla
1.14

allows per match

Rayo Majadahonda
1.07
Melilla
1.93

finishing

Rayo Majadahonda+0.00on par
Melilla+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Majadahonda ↓

Melilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Rayo Majadahonda or draw
73%
Rayo Majadahonda or Melilla
75%
Draw or Melilla
52%

Winning margin

Rayo Majadahonda wins by 2+
24%
Melilla wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Rayo Majadahonda 1+ goals
79%
Rayo Majadahonda 2+ goals
46%
Rayo Majadahonda 3+ goals
20%
Melilla 1+ goals
67%
Melilla 2+ goals
30%
Melilla 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Rayo Majadahonda (draw refunded)
64%
Melilla (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Majadahonda at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.07 · 69 matches

Melilla away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Majadahonda attack 1.17 + Melilla defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.55

Melilla attack 1.14 + Rayo Majadahonda defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Rayo Majadahonda scores more
48%
level
25%
Melilla scores more
27%

Rayo Majadahonda at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Rayo Majadahonda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Rayo Majadahonda 2–2 Melilla

Rayo Majadahonda and Melilla drew 2-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 20, 2019.

The match was played at Miniestadio Cerro del Espino in Majadahonda.