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Rayo Majadahonda vs Fuenlabrada — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Rayo Majadahonda
Rayo Majadahonda
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fuenlabrada
Fuenlabrada
1/4/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 18Miniestadio Cerro del Espino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Rayo Majadahonda49%
×Draw28%
Fuenlabrada23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayo Majadahonda
1.33
Fuenlabrada
0.82

Rayo Majadahonda creates 62% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 38 away

creates per match

Rayo Majadahonda
1.17
Fuenlabrada
0.58

allows per match

Rayo Majadahonda
1.07
Fuenlabrada
1.50

finishing

Rayo Majadahonda+0.00on par
Fuenlabrada+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Majadahonda ↓

Fuenlabrada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Rayo Majadahonda or draw
77%
Rayo Majadahonda or Fuenlabrada
72%
Draw or Fuenlabrada
51%

Winning margin

Rayo Majadahonda wins by 2+
23%
Fuenlabrada wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Rayo Majadahonda 1+ goals
74%
Rayo Majadahonda 2+ goals
38%
Rayo Majadahonda 3+ goals
15%
Fuenlabrada 1+ goals
56%
Fuenlabrada 2+ goals
20%
Fuenlabrada 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Rayo Majadahonda (draw refunded)
68%
Fuenlabrada (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Majadahonda at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.07 · 69 matches

Fuenlabrada away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.50 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Majadahonda attack 1.17 + Fuenlabrada defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.33

Fuenlabrada attack 0.58 + Rayo Majadahonda defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Rayo Majadahonda scores more
49%
level
28%
Fuenlabrada scores more
23%

Rayo Majadahonda at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Rayo Majadahonda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rayo Majadahonda vs Fuenlabrada

Rayo Majadahonda and Fuenlabrada drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 4, 2024.

The match was played at Miniestadio Cerro del Espino in Majadahonda.