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Rayo Majadahonda vs Celta de Vigo II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Rayo Majadahonda
Rayo Majadahonda
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Celta de Vigo II
Celta de Vigo II
2/12/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 23Miniestadio Cerro del Espino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Rayo Majadahonda37%
×Draw27%
Celta de Vigo II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayo Majadahonda
1.23
Celta de Vigo II
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 120 away

creates per match

Rayo Majadahonda
1.17
Celta de Vigo II
1.33

allows per match

Rayo Majadahonda
1.07
Celta de Vigo II
1.29

finishing

Rayo Majadahonda+0.00on par
Celta de Vigo II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Majadahonda ↓

Celta de Vigo II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Rayo Majadahonda or draw
64%
Rayo Majadahonda or Celta de Vigo II
73%
Draw or Celta de Vigo II
63%

Winning margin

Rayo Majadahonda wins by 2+
16%
Celta de Vigo II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Rayo Majadahonda 1+ goals
71%
Rayo Majadahonda 2+ goals
35%
Rayo Majadahonda 3+ goals
13%
Celta de Vigo II 1+ goals
70%
Celta de Vigo II 2+ goals
34%
Celta de Vigo II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Rayo Majadahonda (draw refunded)
51%
Celta de Vigo II (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Majadahonda at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.07 · 69 matches

Celta de Vigo II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.29 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Majadahonda attack 1.17 + Celta de Vigo II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Celta de Vigo II attack 1.33 + Rayo Majadahonda defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Rayo Majadahonda scores more
37%
level
27%
Celta de Vigo II scores more
36%

Rayo Majadahonda at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Rayo Majadahonda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rayo Majadahonda 1 – 0 Celta de Vigo II

Rayo Majadahonda beat Celta de Vigo II 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on February 12, 2023.

The match was played at Miniestadio Cerro del Espino in Majadahonda.