Rayo Majadahonda 2–1 Calahorra: Result & Stats

Rayo Majadahonda

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Calahorra

Mario García 71'

Cristian Pérez 4'

Cristian Pérez 89' (OG)

9/4/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2Miniestadio Cerro del Espino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Rayo Majadahonda37%

×Draw29%

Calahorra33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rayo MajadahondaExpected goals in this matchCalahorra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.06

Rayo Majadahonda

1.14

Calahorra

1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 19 away

1.17

creates per match

1.05

1.07

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Rayo Majadahonda

1.17

Calahorra

1.05

allows per match

Rayo Majadahonda

1.07

Calahorra

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rayo Majadahonda+0.00on par

Calahorra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Majadahonda ↓

Calahorra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Rayo Majadahonda or draw

67%

Rayo Majadahonda or Calahorra

71%

Draw or Calahorra

63%

Winning margin

Rayo Majadahonda wins by 2+

15%

Calahorra wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Rayo Majadahonda 1+ goals

68%

Rayo Majadahonda 2+ goals

32%

Rayo Majadahonda 3+ goals

11%

Calahorra 1+ goals

65%

Calahorra 2+ goals

29%

Calahorra 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Rayo Majadahonda (draw refunded)

53%

Calahorra (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Majadahonda at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.07 · 69 matches

Calahorra away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Majadahonda attack 1.17 + Calahorra defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.14

Calahorra attack 1.05 + Rayo Majadahonda defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Rayo Majadahonda scores more

37%

level

29%

Calahorra scores more

33%

Rayo Majadahonda at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Rayo Majadahonda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

Cristian Pérez

22'

J. Casado

46'

Gorka Iturraspe← Néstor Albiach

46'

Martínez-Losa← David Soto

54'

A. Vega

60'

Álex Arias← Manu Ramírez

64'

Héctor Hernández← Raúl Sánchez

68'

R. Sanchez

70'

M. Rodríguez← Rubén Sánchez

70'

Cera← Fran Rodríguez

70'

David Grande← Carlos Vicente

70'

Iñigo Zubiri← Lander Yurrebaso

71'

Mario García

78'

B. Gonzalez

79'

C. Fernandez

80'

T. Aguado

83'

Juanjo← Mario García

83'

Mawi← Jesús Bernal

89'

Juanjo

89'

Cristian PérezOwn goal

Rayo

Calahorra

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽🥅

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

García

▼

Sánchez

Manager: Abel Gómez

46'▲Gorka Iturraspe←▼Néstor Albiach

64'▲Héctor Hernández←▼Raúl Sánchez

70'▲M. Rodríguez←▼Rubén Sánchez

83'▲Juanjo←▼Mario García

83'▲Mawi←▼Jesús Bernal

Rayo Majadahonda substitutes

IturraspeHernándezRodríguezJuanjoMawiGiraltLópezGómezSusaetaOseiTassembedo

Manager: Eduardo Docampo

46'▲Martínez-Losa←▼David Soto

60'▲Álex Arias←▼Manu Ramírez

70'▲Cera←▼Fran Rodríguez

70'▲David Grande←▼Carlos Vicente

70'▲Iñigo Zubiri←▼Lander Yurrebaso

Calahorra substitutes

Martínez-LosaAriasCeraGrandeZubiriColletBaraceSarriegiMarcénMadrazoMartínezCruz