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Rayo Majadahonda vs Atlético Baleares — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Rayo Majadahonda
Rayo Majadahonda
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Atlético Baleares
Atlético Baleares
9/8/2019Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 3Miniestadio Cerro del Espino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Rayo Majadahonda37%
×Draw31%
Atlético Baleares32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayo Majadahonda
1.01
Atlético Baleares
0.92

Rayo Majadahonda creates 10% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 13 away

creates per match

Rayo Majadahonda
1.17
Atlético Baleares
0.77

allows per match

Rayo Majadahonda
1.07
Atlético Baleares
0.85

finishing

Rayo Majadahonda+0.00on par
Atlético Baleares+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Majadahonda ↓

Atlético Baleares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Rayo Majadahonda or draw
68%
Rayo Majadahonda or Atlético Baleares
69%
Draw or Atlético Baleares
63%

Winning margin

Rayo Majadahonda wins by 2+
14%
Atlético Baleares wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Rayo Majadahonda 1+ goals
64%
Rayo Majadahonda 2+ goals
27%
Rayo Majadahonda 3+ goals
8%
Atlético Baleares 1+ goals
60%
Atlético Baleares 2+ goals
23%
Atlético Baleares 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Rayo Majadahonda (draw refunded)
53%
Atlético Baleares (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Majadahonda at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.07 · 69 matches

Atlético Baleares away — creates 0.77, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Majadahonda attack 1.17 + Atlético Baleares defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.01

Atlético Baleares attack 0.77 + Rayo Majadahonda defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Rayo Majadahonda scores more
37%
level
31%
Atlético Baleares scores more
32%

Rayo Majadahonda at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Rayo Majadahonda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Rayo Majadahonda 2–1 Atlético Baleares

Rayo Majadahonda beat Atlético Baleares 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on September 8, 2019.

The match was played at Miniestadio Cerro del Espino in Majadahonda.