Rayo Ibense 1–2 Soneja: Result & Stats

Rayo Ibense

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Soneja

2/10/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 20Estadio Francisco Vilaplana Mariel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Rayo Ibense38%

×Draw28%

Soneja34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rayo IbenseExpected goals in this matchSoneja

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.16

Rayo Ibense

1.24

Soneja

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 51 away

1.10

creates per match

1.02

1.29

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Rayo Ibense

1.10

Soneja

1.02

allows per match

Rayo Ibense

1.29

Soneja

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rayo Ibense+0.00on par

Soneja+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Ibense ↓

Soneja →

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Rayo Ibense or draw

66%

Rayo Ibense or Soneja

72%

Draw or Soneja

62%

Winning margin

Rayo Ibense wins by 2+

17%

Soneja wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Rayo Ibense 1+ goals

71%

Rayo Ibense 2+ goals

35%

Rayo Ibense 3+ goals

13%

Soneja 1+ goals

69%

Soneja 2+ goals

32%

Soneja 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Rayo Ibense (draw refunded)

53%

Soneja (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Rayo Ibense at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.29 · 49 matches

Soneja away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.37 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Ibense attack 1.10 + Soneja defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.24

Soneja attack 1.02 + Rayo Ibense defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Rayo Ibense scores more

38%

level

28%

Soneja scores more

34%

Rayo Ibense at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Rayo Ibense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff