Rayo Ibense 3–0 Silla: Result & Stats

Rayo Ibense

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Silla

5/1/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 32Estadio Francisco Vilaplana Mariel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Rayo Ibense44%

×Draw26%

Silla30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rayo IbenseExpected goals in this matchSilla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.15

Rayo Ibense

1.45

Silla

1.15

Rayo Ibense creates 26% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 78 away

1.10

creates per match

1.00

1.29

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Rayo Ibense

1.10

Silla

1.00

allows per match

Rayo Ibense

1.29

Silla

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rayo Ibense+0.00on par

Silla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Ibense ↓

Silla →

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Rayo Ibense or draw

70%

Rayo Ibense or Silla

74%

Draw or Silla

56%

Winning margin

Rayo Ibense wins by 2+

21%

Silla wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Rayo Ibense 1+ goals

77%

Rayo Ibense 2+ goals

42%

Rayo Ibense 3+ goals

18%

Silla 1+ goals

68%

Silla 2+ goals

32%

Silla 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Rayo Ibense (draw refunded)

59%

Silla (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Rayo Ibense at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.29 · 49 matches

Silla away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.79 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Ibense attack 1.10 + Silla defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.45

Silla attack 1.00 + Rayo Ibense defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Rayo Ibense scores more

44%

level

26%

Silla scores more

30%

Rayo Ibense at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Rayo Ibense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff