Rayo Ibense 1–5 Patacona: Result & Stats

Rayo Ibense

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Patacona

Iago 52' (pen)

Juanmi 84', 61'

Moisés Eboko 75'

Brandon Yarce 35'

Sergio Soler 15'

4/23/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 30Estadio Francisco Vilaplana Mariel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Rayo Ibense38%

×Draw27%

Patacona36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rayo IbenseExpected goals in this matchPatacona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.27

Rayo Ibense

1.31

Patacona

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 49 away

1.10

creates per match

1.24

1.29

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Rayo Ibense

1.10

Patacona

1.24

allows per match

Rayo Ibense

1.29

Patacona

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rayo Ibense+0.00on par

Patacona+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Ibense ↓

Patacona →

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Rayo Ibense or draw

64%

Rayo Ibense or Patacona

73%

Draw or Patacona

62%

Winning margin

Rayo Ibense wins by 2+

17%

Patacona wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Rayo Ibense 1+ goals

73%

Rayo Ibense 2+ goals

38%

Rayo Ibense 3+ goals

14%

Patacona 1+ goals

72%

Patacona 2+ goals

36%

Patacona 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Rayo Ibense (draw refunded)

51%

Patacona (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Rayo Ibense at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.29 · 49 matches

Patacona away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.53 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Ibense attack 1.10 + Patacona defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.31

Patacona attack 1.24 + Rayo Ibense defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Rayo Ibense scores more

38%

level

27%

Patacona scores more

36%

Rayo Ibense at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Rayo Ibense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

Sergio Soler

35'

Brandon Yarce

36'

B. Murillo← Domingo

46'

Juanan← Vicent Sanchis

52'

IagoPenalty

53'

Manuel Tutu← Iago

61'

Juanmi

68'

Ángel Pérez← Kevin Sanz

68'

Denilson← Adrián Banderas

68'

Alejandro Montero← Francisco Santoyo

71'

Luis Sancho← Angel Climent

71'

Sandro Benlloch← Sergio Soler

71'

Pau Lapiedra← I. Gallo

75'

Moisés Eboko

77'

Cutanda← Sandro Benlloch

84'

Juanmi

Rayo

Patacona

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽2

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Iago

Pina

Micó

Manager: Dani Pina

36'▲B. Murillo←▼Domingo

53'▲Manuel Tutu←▼Iago

68'▲Ángel Pérez←▼Kevin Sanz

68'▲Denilson←▼Adrián Banderas

68'▲Alejandro Montero←▼Francisco Santoyo

Rayo Ibense substitutes

MurilloTutuPérezDenilsonMontero

Manager: Carlos Ortí

46'▲Juanan←▼Vicent Sanchis

71'▲Luis Sancho←▼Angel Climent

71'▲Sandro Benlloch←▼Sergio Soler

71'▲Pau Lapiedra←▼I. Gallo

77'▲Cutanda←▼Sandro Benlloch

Patacona substitutes

JuananSanchoBenllochLapiedraCutanda

Match Recap: Rayo Ibense vs Patacona

Patacona beat Rayo Ibense 5-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on April 23, 2023.

Goals: Sergio Soler (15'), Brandon Yarce (35'), Iago (52' pen), Juanmi (61', 84'), Moisés Eboko (75').

The match was played at Estadio Francisco Vilaplana Mariel in Alicante.

Rayo Ibense vs Patacona — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Rayo Ibense vs Patacona