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Rayo Ibense vs Jove Español — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Rayo Ibense
Rayo Ibense
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Jove Español
Jove Español
3/6/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 22Estadio Francisco Vilaplana Mariel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Rayo Ibense38%
×Draw29%
Jove Español33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayo Ibense
1.16
Jove Español
1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 110 away

creates per match

Rayo Ibense
1.10
Jove Español
0.86

allows per match

Rayo Ibense
1.29
Jove Español
1.21

finishing

Rayo Ibense+0.00on par
Jove Español+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Ibense ↓

Jove Español →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Rayo Ibense or draw
67%
Rayo Ibense or Jove Español
71%
Draw or Jove Español
62%

Winning margin

Rayo Ibense wins by 2+
16%
Jove Español wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Rayo Ibense 1+ goals
69%
Rayo Ibense 2+ goals
32%
Rayo Ibense 3+ goals
11%
Jove Español 1+ goals
66%
Jove Español 2+ goals
29%
Jove Español 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Rayo Ibense (draw refunded)
53%
Jove Español (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Ibense at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.29 · 49 matches

Jove Español away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.21 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Ibense attack 1.10 + Jove Español defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.16

Jove Español attack 0.86 + Rayo Ibense defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Rayo Ibense scores more
38%
level
29%
Jove Español scores more
33%

Rayo Ibense at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Rayo Ibense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Rayo Ibense 0–1 Jove Español

Jove Español beat Rayo Ibense 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on March 6, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco Vilaplana Mariel in Alicante.