Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Rayo Ibense vs CF Gandía — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Rayo Ibense
Rayo Ibense
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
CF Gandía
CF Gandía
9/10/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 1Estadio Francisco Vilaplana Mariel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Rayo Ibense37%
×Draw27%
CF Gandía36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayo Ibense
1.22
CF Gandía
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 32 away

creates per match

Rayo Ibense
1.10
CF Gandía
1.13

allows per match

Rayo Ibense
1.29
CF Gandía
1.34

finishing

Rayo Ibense+0.00on par
CF Gandía+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Ibense ↓

CF Gandía →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Rayo Ibense or draw
64%
Rayo Ibense or CF Gandía
73%
Draw or CF Gandía
63%

Winning margin

Rayo Ibense wins by 2+
16%
CF Gandía wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Rayo Ibense 1+ goals
70%
Rayo Ibense 2+ goals
34%
Rayo Ibense 3+ goals
12%
CF Gandía 1+ goals
70%
CF Gandía 2+ goals
34%
CF Gandía 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Rayo Ibense (draw refunded)
50%
CF Gandía (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Ibense at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.29 · 49 matches

CF Gandía away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Ibense attack 1.10 + CF Gandía defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.22

CF Gandía attack 1.13 + Rayo Ibense defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Rayo Ibense scores more
37%
level
27%
CF Gandía scores more
36%

Rayo Ibense at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Rayo Ibense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rayo Ibense vs CF Gandía

Rayo Ibense beat CF Gandía 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on September 10, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco Vilaplana Mariel in Alicante.