Rayka Babol 1–1 Vista Turbine: Result & Stats

Rayka Babol

FT

1 – 1

Vista Turbine

11/22/2021

Azadegan League · Round 7Simorgh Martyrs Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Rayka Babol49%

×Draw32%

Vista Turbine20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rayka BabolExpected goals in this matchVista Turbine

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.60

Rayka Babol

1.13

Vista Turbine

0.60

Rayka Babol creates 88% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

1.08

creates per match

0.47

0.73

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Rayka Babol

1.08

Vista Turbine

0.47

allows per match

Rayka Babol

0.73

Vista Turbine

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rayka Babol+0.00on par

Vista Turbine+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayka Babol ↓

Vista Turbine →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–111%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

52%48%2.5

25%75%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Rayka Babol or draw

80%

Rayka Babol or Vista Turbine

68%

Draw or Vista Turbine

51%

Winning margin

Rayka Babol wins by 2+

21%

Vista Turbine wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Rayka Babol 1+ goals

68%

Rayka Babol 2+ goals

31%

Rayka Babol 3+ goals

11%

Vista Turbine 1+ goals

45%

Vista Turbine 2+ goals

12%

Vista Turbine 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Rayka Babol (draw refunded)

71%

Vista Turbine (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayka Babol at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.73 · 51 matches

Vista Turbine away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayka Babol attack 1.08 + Vista Turbine defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.13

Vista Turbine attack 0.47 + Rayka Babol defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Rayka Babol scores more

49%

level

32%

Vista Turbine scores more

20%

Rayka Babol at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Rayka Babol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff