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Rayka Babol vs Pars Jonoubi JAM — Azadegan League 2018

Rayka Babol
Rayka Babol
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Pars Jonoubi JAM
Pars Jonoubi JAM
4/28/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 27Simorgh Martyrs Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Rayka Babol42%
×Draw31%
Pars Jonoubi JAM27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayka Babol
1.10
Pars Jonoubi JAM
0.81

Rayka Babol creates 36% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 100 away

creates per match

Rayka Babol
1.08
Pars Jonoubi JAM
0.89

allows per match

Rayka Babol
0.73
Pars Jonoubi JAM
1.12

finishing

Rayka Babol+0.00on par
Pars Jonoubi JAM+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayka Babol ↓

Pars Jonoubi JAM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Rayka Babol or draw
73%
Rayka Babol or Pars Jonoubi JAM
69%
Draw or Pars Jonoubi JAM
58%

Winning margin

Rayka Babol wins by 2+
17%
Pars Jonoubi JAM wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Rayka Babol 1+ goals
67%
Rayka Babol 2+ goals
30%
Rayka Babol 3+ goals
10%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 1+ goals
56%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 2+ goals
19%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Rayka Babol (draw refunded)
61%
Pars Jonoubi JAM (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayka Babol at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.73 · 51 matches

Pars Jonoubi JAM away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.12 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayka Babol attack 1.08 + Pars Jonoubi JAM defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.10

Pars Jonoubi JAM attack 0.89 + Rayka Babol defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rayka Babol scores more
42%
level
31%
Pars Jonoubi JAM scores more
27%

Rayka Babol at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rayka Babol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Rayka Babol 5–1 Pars Jonoubi JAM

Rayka Babol beat Pars Jonoubi JAM 5-1 in Azadegan League on April 28, 2022.

The match was played at Simorgh Martyrs Stadium in Ziar Kola.