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Rayka Babol vs Mes Rafsanjan — Azadegan League 2018

Rayka Babol
Rayka Babol
FT
2 – 0
Mes Rafsanjan
Mes Rafsanjan
11/4/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 11Shohada Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Rayka Babol40%
×Draw30%
Mes Rafsanjan30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayka Babol
1.15
Mes Rafsanjan
0.96

Rayka Babol creates 20% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 32 away

creates per match

Rayka Babol
1.08
Mes Rafsanjan
1.19

allows per match

Rayka Babol
0.73
Mes Rafsanjan
1.22

finishing

Rayka Babol+0.00on par
Mes Rafsanjan+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayka Babol ↓

Mes Rafsanjan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Rayka Babol or draw
70%
Rayka Babol or Mes Rafsanjan
70%
Draw or Mes Rafsanjan
60%

Winning margin

Rayka Babol wins by 2+
17%
Mes Rafsanjan wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Rayka Babol 1+ goals
68%
Rayka Babol 2+ goals
32%
Rayka Babol 3+ goals
11%
Mes Rafsanjan 1+ goals
62%
Mes Rafsanjan 2+ goals
25%
Mes Rafsanjan 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Rayka Babol (draw refunded)
57%
Mes Rafsanjan (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayka Babol at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.73 · 51 matches

Mes Rafsanjan away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.22 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayka Babol attack 1.08 + Mes Rafsanjan defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.15

Mes Rafsanjan attack 1.19 + Rayka Babol defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rayka Babol scores more
40%
level
30%
Mes Rafsanjan scores more
30%

Rayka Babol at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rayka Babol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Rayka Babol 2–0 Mes Rafsanjan

Rayka Babol beat Mes Rafsanjan 2-0 in Azadegan League on November 4, 2019.

The match was played at Shohada Stadium in Babol.