Rayka Babol 2–0 Khooshe Talaee Saveh

Rayka Babol

FT

2 – 0

Khooshe Talaee Saveh

7/19/2021

Azadegan League · Round 34Shohada Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Rayka Babol44%

×Draw31%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rayka BabolExpected goals in this matchKhooshe Talaee Saveh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

0.75

Rayka Babol

1.11

Khooshe Talaee Saveh

0.75

Rayka Babol creates 48% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 84 away

1.08

creates per match

0.77

0.73

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Rayka Babol

1.08

Khooshe Talaee Saveh

0.77

allows per match

Rayka Babol

0.73

Khooshe Talaee Saveh

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rayka Babol+0.00on par

Khooshe Talaee Saveh+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayka Babol ↓

Khooshe Talaee Saveh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–112%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Rayka Babol or draw

75%

Rayka Babol or Khooshe Talaee Saveh

69%

Draw or Khooshe Talaee Saveh

56%

Winning margin

Rayka Babol wins by 2+

18%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Rayka Babol 1+ goals

67%

Rayka Babol 2+ goals

30%

Rayka Babol 3+ goals

10%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh 1+ goals

53%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh 2+ goals

17%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Rayka Babol (draw refunded)

64%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayka Babol at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.73 · 51 matches

Khooshe Talaee Saveh away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.15 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayka Babol attack 1.08 + Khooshe Talaee Saveh defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.11

Khooshe Talaee Saveh attack 0.77 + Rayka Babol defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Rayka Babol scores more

44%

level

31%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh scores more

25%

Rayka Babol at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Rayka Babol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff