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Rayka Babol vs Fajr Sepasi — Azadegan League 2018

Rayka Babol
Rayka Babol
FT
1 – 1
Fajr Sepasi
Fajr Sepasi
10/5/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 7Shohada Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Rayka Babol36%
×Draw32%
Fajr Sepasi31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayka Babol
0.97
Fajr Sepasi
0.88

Rayka Babol creates 10% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 98 away

creates per match

Rayka Babol
1.08
Fajr Sepasi
1.03

allows per match

Rayka Babol
0.73
Fajr Sepasi
0.86

finishing

Rayka Babol+0.00on par
Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayka Babol ↓

Fajr Sepasi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Rayka Babol or draw
69%
Rayka Babol or Fajr Sepasi
68%
Draw or Fajr Sepasi
64%

Winning margin

Rayka Babol wins by 2+
14%
Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Rayka Babol 1+ goals
62%
Rayka Babol 2+ goals
25%
Rayka Babol 3+ goals
7%
Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals
59%
Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals
22%
Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Rayka Babol (draw refunded)
54%
Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayka Babol at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.73 · 51 matches

Fajr Sepasi away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.86 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayka Babol attack 1.08 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.97

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.03 + Rayka Babol defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Rayka Babol scores more
36%
level
32%
Fajr Sepasi scores more
31%

Rayka Babol at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Rayka Babol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Rayka Babol 1–1 Fajr Sepasi

Rayka Babol and Fajr Sepasi drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on October 5, 2019.

The match was played at Shohada Stadium in Babol.