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Rayka Babol vs Aluminium Arak — Azadegan League 2018

Rayka Babol
Rayka Babol
FT
1 – 2
Aluminium Arak
Aluminium Arak
7/25/2020Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 31Shohada Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Rayka Babol40%
×Draw35%
Aluminium Arak26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayka Babol
0.93
Aluminium Arak
0.68

Rayka Babol creates 37% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 32 away

creates per match

Rayka Babol
1.08
Aluminium Arak
0.63

allows per match

Rayka Babol
0.73
Aluminium Arak
0.78

finishing

Rayka Babol+0.00on par
Aluminium Arak+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Under
  • Under78
  • Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayka Babol ↓

Aluminium Arak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–114%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
48%52%2.5
22%78%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Rayka Babol or draw
74%
Rayka Babol or Aluminium Arak
65%
Draw or Aluminium Arak
60%

Winning margin

Rayka Babol wins by 2+
15%
Aluminium Arak wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Rayka Babol 1+ goals
61%
Rayka Babol 2+ goals
24%
Rayka Babol 3+ goals
7%
Aluminium Arak 1+ goals
49%
Aluminium Arak 2+ goals
15%
Aluminium Arak 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Rayka Babol (draw refunded)
61%
Aluminium Arak (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayka Babol at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.73 · 51 matches

Aluminium Arak away — creates 0.63, concedes 0.78 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayka Babol attack 1.08 + Aluminium Arak defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.93

Aluminium Arak attack 0.63 + Rayka Babol defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rayka Babol scores more
40%
level
35%
Aluminium Arak scores more
26%

Rayka Babol at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rayka Babol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rayka Babol vs Aluminium Arak

Aluminium Arak beat Rayka Babol 2-1 in Azadegan League on July 25, 2020.

The match was played at Shohada Stadium in Babol.