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Raya2 vs Tapatío — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Raya2
Raya2
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tapatío
Tapatío
8/13/2021Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 3Estadio BBVA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Raya238%
×Draw28%
Tapatío35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raya2
1.24
Tapatío
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 104 away

creates per match

Raya2
1.03
Tapatío
1.25

allows per match

Raya2
1.11
Tapatío
1.45

finishing

Raya2+0.00on par
Tapatío+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raya2 ↓

Tapatío →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Raya2 or draw
65%
Raya2 or Tapatío
72%
Draw or Tapatío
62%

Winning margin

Raya2 wins by 2+
16%
Tapatío wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Raya2 1+ goals
71%
Raya2 2+ goals
35%
Raya2 3+ goals
13%
Tapatío 1+ goals
69%
Tapatío 2+ goals
33%
Tapatío 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Raya2 (draw refunded)
52%
Tapatío (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raya2 at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.11 · 35 matches

Tapatío away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.45 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raya2 attack 1.03 + Tapatío defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.24

Tapatío attack 1.25 + Raya2 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Raya2 scores more
38%
level
28%
Tapatío scores more
35%

Raya2 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Raya2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Raya2 vs Tapatío

Raya2 beat Tapatío 2-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on August 13, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio BBVA in Guadalupe.