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Raya2 vs Mineros de Zacatecas — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Raya2
Raya2
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Mineros de Zacatecas
Mineros de Zacatecas
9/21/2021Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 9Estadio BBVA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Raya239%
×Draw27%
Mineros de Zacatecas34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raya2
1.28
Mineros de Zacatecas
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 136 away

creates per match

Raya2
1.03
Mineros de Zacatecas
1.24

allows per match

Raya2
1.11
Mineros de Zacatecas
1.53

finishing

Raya2+0.00on par
Mineros de Zacatecas+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raya2 ↓

Mineros de Zacatecas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Raya2 or draw
66%
Raya2 or Mineros de Zacatecas
73%
Draw or Mineros de Zacatecas
61%

Winning margin

Raya2 wins by 2+
17%
Mineros de Zacatecas wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Raya2 1+ goals
72%
Raya2 2+ goals
37%
Raya2 3+ goals
14%
Mineros de Zacatecas 1+ goals
69%
Mineros de Zacatecas 2+ goals
33%
Mineros de Zacatecas 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Raya2 (draw refunded)
53%
Mineros de Zacatecas (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raya2 at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.11 · 35 matches

Mineros de Zacatecas away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.53 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raya2 attack 1.03 + Mineros de Zacatecas defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.28

Mineros de Zacatecas attack 1.24 + Raya2 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Raya2 scores more
39%
level
27%
Mineros de Zacatecas scores more
34%

Raya2 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Raya2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Raya2 vs Mineros de Zacatecas

Mineros de Zacatecas beat Raya2 1-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on September 21, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio BBVA in Guadalupe.