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Raya2 vs Correcaminos Uat — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Raya2
Raya2
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Correcaminos Uat
Correcaminos Uat
2/16/2022Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 8Estadio BBVA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Raya246%
×Draw27%
Correcaminos Uat27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raya2
1.43
Correcaminos Uat
1.02

Raya2 creates 40% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 116 away

creates per match

Raya2
1.03
Correcaminos Uat
0.92

allows per match

Raya2
1.11
Correcaminos Uat
1.83

finishing

Raya2+0.00on par
Correcaminos Uat+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raya2 ↓

Correcaminos Uat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Raya2 or draw
73%
Raya2 or Correcaminos Uat
73%
Draw or Correcaminos Uat
54%

Winning margin

Raya2 wins by 2+
23%
Correcaminos Uat wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Raya2 1+ goals
76%
Raya2 2+ goals
42%
Raya2 3+ goals
17%
Correcaminos Uat 1+ goals
64%
Correcaminos Uat 2+ goals
27%
Correcaminos Uat 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Raya2 (draw refunded)
63%
Correcaminos Uat (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raya2 at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.11 · 35 matches

Correcaminos Uat away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.83 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raya2 attack 1.03 + Correcaminos Uat defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.43

Correcaminos Uat attack 0.92 + Raya2 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Raya2 scores more
46%
level
27%
Correcaminos Uat scores more
27%

Raya2 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Raya2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Raya2 vs Correcaminos Uat

Raya2 and Correcaminos Uat drew 3-3 in Liga de Expansión MX on February 16, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio BBVA in Guadalupe.