Raya2 1–1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca: Result & Stats

Raya2

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Alebrijes de Oaxaca

3/9/2023

Liga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 10Estadio BBVA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Raya246%

×Draw27%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Raya2Expected goals in this matchAlebrijes de Oaxaca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.02

Raya2

1.42

Alebrijes de Oaxaca

1.02

Raya2 creates 39% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 124 away

1.03

creates per match

0.93

1.11

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Raya2

1.03

Alebrijes de Oaxaca

0.93

allows per match

Raya2

1.11

Alebrijes de Oaxaca

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Raya2+0.00on par

Alebrijes de Oaxaca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raya2 ↓

Alebrijes de Oaxaca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Raya2 or draw

73%

Raya2 or Alebrijes de Oaxaca

73%

Draw or Alebrijes de Oaxaca

54%

Winning margin

Raya2 wins by 2+

22%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Raya2 1+ goals

76%

Raya2 2+ goals

41%

Raya2 3+ goals

17%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1+ goals

64%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2+ goals

27%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Raya2 (draw refunded)

63%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raya2 at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.11 · 35 matches

Alebrijes de Oaxaca away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.80 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raya2 attack 1.03 + Alebrijes de Oaxaca defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.42

Alebrijes de Oaxaca attack 0.93 + Raya2 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Raya2 scores more

46%

level

27%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca scores more

27%

Raya2 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Raya2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff