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Ravshan vs Sardor Tursunzoda — Vysshaya Liga 2025

Ravshan
Ravshan
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sardor Tursunzoda
Sardor Tursunzoda
5/22/2026Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Ravshan53%
×Draw23%
Sardor Tursunzoda24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ravshan
1.81
Sardor Tursunzoda
1.14

Ravshan creates 59% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 7 away

creates per match

Ravshan
1.32
Sardor Tursunzoda
1.43

allows per match

Ravshan
0.84
Sardor Tursunzoda
2.29

finishing

Ravshan+0.00on par
Sardor Tursunzoda+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ravshan ↓

Sardor Tursunzoda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Ravshan or draw
76%
Ravshan or Sardor Tursunzoda
77%
Draw or Sardor Tursunzoda
47%

Winning margin

Ravshan wins by 2+
30%
Sardor Tursunzoda wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ravshan 1+ goals
84%
Ravshan 2+ goals
54%
Ravshan 3+ goals
27%
Sardor Tursunzoda 1+ goals
68%
Sardor Tursunzoda 2+ goals
32%
Sardor Tursunzoda 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ravshan (draw refunded)
69%
Sardor Tursunzoda (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ravshan at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.84 · 37 matches

Sardor Tursunzoda away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ravshan attack 1.32 + Sardor Tursunzoda defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.81

Sardor Tursunzoda attack 1.43 + Ravshan defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ravshan scores more
53%
level
23%
Sardor Tursunzoda scores more
24%

Ravshan at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ravshan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vysshaya Liga: Ravshan 3–1 Sardor Tursunzoda

Ravshan beat Sardor Tursunzoda 3-1 in Vysshaya Liga on May 22, 2026.