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Ravshan vs Parvoz — Vysshaya Liga 2025

Ravshan
Ravshan
Preview
13:00
Parvoz
Parvoz
9/6/2026Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 16
Big match
64%
Ravshan
model favours
64%22%13%

Ravshan have won 4 of the last 5 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
41%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Ravshan64%
×Draw22%
Parvoz13%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ravshan
1.79
Parvoz
0.67

Ravshan creates 167% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 32 away

creates per match

Ravshan
1.34
Parvoz
0.59

allows per match

Ravshan
0.74
Parvoz
2.25

finishing

Ravshan+0.00on par
Parvoz+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ravshan ↓

Parvoz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ravshan or draw
87%
Ravshan or Parvoz
78%
Draw or Parvoz
36%

Winning margin

Ravshan wins by 2+
38%
Parvoz wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Ravshan 1+ goals
83%
Ravshan 2+ goals
53%
Ravshan 3+ goals
26%
Parvoz 1+ goals
49%
Parvoz 2+ goals
15%
Parvoz 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Ravshan (draw refunded)
83%
Parvoz (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ravshan at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.74 · 35 matches

Parvoz away — creates 0.59, concedes 2.25 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ravshan attack 1.34 + Parvoz defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.79

Parvoz attack 0.59 + Ravshan defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Ravshan scores more
64%
level
22%
Parvoz scores more
13%

Ravshan at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Ravshan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Ravshan
LWWLW
Parvoz
DLWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ravshan vs Parvoz — Match Preview

Ravshan face Parvoz on September 6, 2026 in this Vysshaya Liga fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.