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Ravshan vs Khujand — Vysshaya Liga 2025

Ravshan
Ravshan
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Khujand
Khujand
S. Boboev 74', 43'
O. Ojetunde 53'
A. Khaitov 49' (pen)
P. Komolafe 19'
3/29/2025Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 3Republican Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Ravshan39%
×Draw29%
Khujand32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ravshan
1.19
Khujand
1.04

Ravshan creates 14% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 32 away

creates per match

Ravshan
1.26
Khujand
1.31

allows per match

Ravshan
0.78
Khujand
1.13

finishing

Ravshan+0.00on par
Khujand+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ravshan ↓

Khujand →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ravshan or draw
68%
Ravshan or Khujand
71%
Draw or Khujand
61%

Winning margin

Ravshan wins by 2+
17%
Khujand wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ravshan 1+ goals
70%
Ravshan 2+ goals
33%
Ravshan 3+ goals
12%
Khujand 1+ goals
65%
Khujand 2+ goals
28%
Khujand 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ravshan (draw refunded)
55%
Khujand (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ravshan at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.78 · 23 matches

Khujand away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.13 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ravshan attack 1.26 + Khujand defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.19

Khujand attack 1.31 + Ravshan defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ravshan scores more
39%
level
29%
Khujand scores more
32%

Ravshan at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ravshan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
P. Komolafe
43'
S. Boboev
49'
A. KhaitovPenalty
53'
O. Ojetunde
74'
S. Boboev
84'
D. Ergashev
Ravshan
Khujand
M. Nazarzadeh
Manager: M. Nazarzadeh
F. Marofiev
Manager: F. Marofiev

Vysshaya Liga: Ravshan 4–1 Khujand

Ravshan beat Khujand 4-1 in Vysshaya Liga on March 29, 2025.

Goals: P. Komolafe (19'), S. Boboev (43', 74'), A. Khaitov (49' pen), O. Ojetunde (53').

The match was played at Republican Central Stadium in Dushanbe.