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Ravshan vs Khosilot Farkhor — Vysshaya Liga 2025

Ravshan
Ravshan
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Khosilot Farkhor
Khosilot Farkhor
A. Khaitov 33'
O. Ojetunde 12'
A. Yola Zepatta 68' (OG)
4/13/2025Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 5Kulob Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Ravshan50%
×Draw26%
Khosilot Farkhor24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ravshan
1.49
Khosilot Farkhor
0.95

Ravshan creates 57% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 36 away

creates per match

Ravshan
1.31
Khosilot Farkhor
1.19

allows per match

Ravshan
0.72
Khosilot Farkhor
1.67

finishing

Ravshan+0.00on par
Khosilot Farkhor+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ravshan ↓

Khosilot Farkhor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ravshan or draw
76%
Ravshan or Khosilot Farkhor
74%
Draw or Khosilot Farkhor
50%

Winning margin

Ravshan wins by 2+
25%
Khosilot Farkhor wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ravshan 1+ goals
77%
Ravshan 2+ goals
44%
Ravshan 3+ goals
19%
Khosilot Farkhor 1+ goals
61%
Khosilot Farkhor 2+ goals
25%
Khosilot Farkhor 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ravshan (draw refunded)
67%
Khosilot Farkhor (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ravshan at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.72 · 36 matches

Khosilot Farkhor away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.67 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ravshan attack 1.31 + Khosilot Farkhor defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.49

Khosilot Farkhor attack 1.19 + Ravshan defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ravshan scores more
50%
level
26%
Khosilot Farkhor scores more
24%

Ravshan at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ravshan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
O. Ojetunde
33'
A. Khaitov
68'
A. Yola ZepattaOwn goal
Ravshan
Khosilot
M. Nazarzadeh
Manager: M. Nazarzadeh
M. Khabibulloev
Manager: M. Khabibulloev

Vysshaya Liga: Ravshan 2–1 Khosilot Farkhor

Ravshan beat Khosilot Farkhor 2-1 in Vysshaya Liga on April 13, 2025.

Goals: O. Ojetunde (12'), A. Khaitov (33'), A. Yola Zepatta (68' o.g.).

The match was played at Kulob Arena in Kulyab.