Ravshan 1–0 Istiqlol: Result & Stats

Ravshan

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Istiqlol

11/9/2022

Vysshaya Liga · Championship Round - 3Respublikanskiy Stadion im. M.V. Frunze

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Ravshan23%

×Draw24%

Istiqlol53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RavshanExpected goals in this matchIstiqlol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

1.70

Ravshan

1.03

Istiqlol

1.70

Istiqlol creates 65% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 100 away

1.44

creates per match

2.52

0.88

allows per match

0.63

creates per match

Ravshan

1.44

Istiqlol

2.52

allows per match

Ravshan

0.88

Istiqlol

0.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ravshan+0.00on par

Istiqlol+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ravshan ↓

Istiqlol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Ravshan or draw

47%

Ravshan or Istiqlol

76%

Draw or Istiqlol

77%

Winning margin

Ravshan wins by 2+

8%

Istiqlol wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Ravshan 1+ goals

64%

Ravshan 2+ goals

28%

Ravshan 3+ goals

9%

Istiqlol 1+ goals

82%

Istiqlol 2+ goals

51%

Istiqlol 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Ravshan (draw refunded)

30%

Istiqlol (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ravshan at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.88 · 73 matches

Istiqlol away — creates 2.52, concedes 0.63 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ravshan attack 1.44 + Istiqlol defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.03

Istiqlol attack 2.52 + Ravshan defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ravshan scores more

23%

level

24%

Istiqlol scores more

53%

Istiqlol at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Istiqlol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff