Istiqlol 6–2 Ravshan: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IstiqlolExpected goals in this matchRavshan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

0.82

Istiqlol

2.01

Ravshan

0.82

Istiqlol creates 145% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 23 away

2.80

creates per match

1.17

0.47

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Istiqlol

2.80

Ravshan

1.17

allows per match

Istiqlol

0.47

Ravshan

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Istiqlol+0.00on par

Ravshan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Istiqlol ↓

Ravshan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Istiqlol or draw

86%

Istiqlol or Ravshan

79%

Draw or Ravshan

35%

Winning margin

Istiqlol wins by 2+

40%

Ravshan wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Istiqlol 1+ goals

87%

Istiqlol 2+ goals

59%

Istiqlol 3+ goals

32%

Ravshan 1+ goals

56%

Ravshan 2+ goals

20%

Ravshan 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Istiqlol (draw refunded)

82%

Ravshan (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Istiqlol at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.47 · 30 matches

Ravshan away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Istiqlol attack 2.80 + Ravshan defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 2.01

Ravshan attack 1.17 + Istiqlol defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Istiqlol scores more

65%

level

21%

Ravshan scores more

14%

Istiqlol at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Istiqlol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

O. Ojetunde

22'

R. Soirov

28'

S. Haghnazari

43'

A. DzhuraboevPenalty

52'

79'

80'

90'

Istiqlol

Ravshan

Manager: I. Cherevchenko

Manager: M. Nazarzadeh