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Ravshan vs Eskhata — Vysshaya Liga 2025

Ravshan
Ravshan
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Eskhata
Eskhata
6/21/2025Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 13Kulob Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Ravshan45%
×Draw26%
Eskhata29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ravshan
1.51
Eskhata
1.17

Ravshan creates 29% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 22 away

creates per match

Ravshan
1.34
Eskhata
1.59

allows per match

Ravshan
0.74
Eskhata
1.68

finishing

Ravshan+0.00on par
Eskhata+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ravshan ↓

Eskhata →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ravshan or draw
71%
Ravshan or Eskhata
74%
Draw or Eskhata
55%

Winning margin

Ravshan wins by 2+
22%
Eskhata wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ravshan 1+ goals
78%
Ravshan 2+ goals
44%
Ravshan 3+ goals
19%
Eskhata 1+ goals
69%
Eskhata 2+ goals
33%
Eskhata 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ravshan (draw refunded)
60%
Eskhata (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ravshan at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.74 · 35 matches

Eskhata away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.68 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ravshan attack 1.34 + Eskhata defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.51

Eskhata attack 1.59 + Ravshan defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ravshan scores more
45%
level
26%
Eskhata scores more
29%

Ravshan at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ravshan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ravshan vs Eskhata

Ravshan and Eskhata drew 0-0 in Vysshaya Liga on June 21, 2025.

The match was played at Kulob Arena in Kulob (Kulyab).