Ravshan 0–0 Eskhata: Result & Stats | Vysshaya Liga

Ravshan

FT

0 – 0

Eskhata

8/21/2021

Vysshaya Liga · Round 16Stadion im. Langari Langarieva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Ravshan48%

×Draw25%

Eskhata27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RavshanExpected goals in this matchEskhata

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.16

Ravshan

1.64

Eskhata

1.16

Ravshan creates 41% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 63 away

1.44

creates per match

1.43

0.88

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Ravshan

1.44

Eskhata

1.43

allows per match

Ravshan

0.88

Eskhata

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ravshan+0.00on par

Eskhata+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ravshan ↓

Eskhata →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Ravshan or draw

73%

Ravshan or Eskhata

75%

Draw or Eskhata

52%

Winning margin

Ravshan wins by 2+

25%

Eskhata wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ravshan 1+ goals

81%

Ravshan 2+ goals

49%

Ravshan 3+ goals

23%

Eskhata 1+ goals

69%

Eskhata 2+ goals

32%

Eskhata 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ravshan (draw refunded)

64%

Eskhata (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ravshan at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.88 · 73 matches

Eskhata away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.83 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ravshan attack 1.44 + Eskhata defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.64

Eskhata attack 1.43 + Ravshan defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ravshan scores more

48%

level

25%

Eskhata scores more

27%

Ravshan at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ravshan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff