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Ravshan vs CSKA Pomir — Vysshaya Liga 2025

Ravshan
Ravshan
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
CSKA Pomir
CSKA Pomir
5/4/2025Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 7Kulob Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Ravshan39%
×Draw30%
CSKA Pomir30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ravshan
1.10
CSKA Pomir
0.93

Ravshan creates 18% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 36 away

creates per match

Ravshan
1.26
CSKA Pomir
1.08

allows per match

Ravshan
0.78
CSKA Pomir
0.94

finishing

Ravshan+0.00on par
CSKA Pomir+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ravshan ↓

CSKA Pomir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ravshan or draw
70%
Ravshan or CSKA Pomir
70%
Draw or CSKA Pomir
61%

Winning margin

Ravshan wins by 2+
16%
CSKA Pomir wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ravshan 1+ goals
67%
Ravshan 2+ goals
30%
Ravshan 3+ goals
10%
CSKA Pomir 1+ goals
61%
CSKA Pomir 2+ goals
24%
CSKA Pomir 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ravshan (draw refunded)
56%
CSKA Pomir (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ravshan at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.78 · 23 matches

CSKA Pomir away — creates 1.08, concedes 0.94 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ravshan attack 1.26 + CSKA Pomir defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.10

CSKA Pomir attack 1.08 + Ravshan defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ravshan scores more
39%
level
30%
CSKA Pomir scores more
30%

Ravshan at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ravshan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Ravshan
CSKA
M. Nazarzadeh
Manager: M. Nazarzadeh
A. Subhoni
Manager: A. Subhoni

Match Recap: Ravshan vs CSKA Pomir

Ravshan and CSKA Pomir drew 0-0 in Vysshaya Liga on May 4, 2025.

The match was played at Kulob Arena in Kulyab.