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Ravshan vs Barki Tajik — Vysshaya Liga 2025

Ravshan
Ravshan
FT
2 – 1
Barki Tajik
Barki Tajik
6/28/2024Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 12Stadion im. Langari Langarieva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Ravshan43%
×Draw28%
Barki Tajik29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ravshan
1.31
Barki Tajik
1.02

Ravshan creates 28% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 28 away

creates per match

Ravshan
1.26
Barki Tajik
1.25

allows per match

Ravshan
0.78
Barki Tajik
1.36

finishing

Ravshan+0.00on par
Barki Tajik+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ravshan ↓

Barki Tajik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ravshan or draw
71%
Ravshan or Barki Tajik
72%
Draw or Barki Tajik
57%

Winning margin

Ravshan wins by 2+
20%
Barki Tajik wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ravshan 1+ goals
73%
Ravshan 2+ goals
38%
Ravshan 3+ goals
14%
Barki Tajik 1+ goals
64%
Barki Tajik 2+ goals
27%
Barki Tajik 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ravshan (draw refunded)
60%
Barki Tajik (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ravshan at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.78 · 23 matches

Barki Tajik away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.36 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ravshan attack 1.26 + Barki Tajik defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.31

Barki Tajik attack 1.25 + Ravshan defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ravshan scores more
43%
level
28%
Barki Tajik scores more
29%

Ravshan at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ravshan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ravshan vs Barki Tajik

Ravshan beat Barki Tajik 2-1 in Vysshaya Liga on June 28, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion im. Langari Langarieva in Kulyab.