Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tsarsko Selo vs Pomorie — Second League 2018

Tsarsko Selo
Tsarsko Selo
FT
4 – 1
Pomorie
Pomorie
10/20/2018Second LeagueSecond League · Round 11Tsarsko selo Complex (Sofia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Tsarsko Selo72%
×Draw17%
Pomorie11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tsarsko Selo
2.40
Pomorie
0.82

Tsarsko Selo creates 193% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 30 away

creates per match

Tsarsko Selo
2.56
Pomorie
0.77

allows per match

Tsarsko Selo
0.88
Pomorie
2.23

finishing

Tsarsko Selo+0.00on par
Pomorie+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tsarsko Selo ↓

Pomorie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Tsarsko Selo or draw
89%
Tsarsko Selo or Pomorie
83%
Draw or Pomorie
28%

Winning margin

Tsarsko Selo wins by 2+
49%
Pomorie wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Tsarsko Selo 1+ goals
91%
Tsarsko Selo 2+ goals
69%
Tsarsko Selo 3+ goals
42%
Pomorie 1+ goals
56%
Pomorie 2+ goals
20%
Pomorie 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tsarsko Selo (draw refunded)
87%
Pomorie (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tsarsko Selo at home — creates 2.56, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Pomorie away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.23 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tsarsko Selo attack 2.56 + Pomorie defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.40

Pomorie attack 0.77 + Tsarsko Selo defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Tsarsko Selo scores more
72%
level
17%
Pomorie scores more
11%

Tsarsko Selo at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Tsarsko Selo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Tsarsko Selo 4–1 Pomorie

Tsarsko Selo beat Pomorie 4-1 in Second League on October 20, 2018.

The match was played at Tsarsko selo Complex (Sofia).