Montana 2–1 Kariana Erden: Result & Stats

Montana

FT

2 – 1

Kariana Erden

10/20/2018

Second League · Round 11Stadion Ogosta (Montana)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Montana51%

×Draw26%

Kariana Erden23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontanaExpected goals in this matchKariana Erden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.91

Montana

1.50

Kariana Erden

0.91

Montana creates 65% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 32 away

1.59

creates per match

1.09

0.73

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Montana

1.59

Kariana Erden

1.09

allows per match

Montana

0.73

Kariana Erden

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montana+0.00on par

Kariana Erden+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montana ↓

Kariana Erden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Montana or draw

77%

Montana or Kariana Erden

74%

Draw or Kariana Erden

49%

Winning margin

Montana wins by 2+

26%

Kariana Erden wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Montana 1+ goals

78%

Montana 2+ goals

44%

Montana 3+ goals

19%

Kariana Erden 1+ goals

60%

Kariana Erden 2+ goals

23%

Kariana Erden 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Montana (draw refunded)

69%

Kariana Erden (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montana at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.73 · 98 matches

Kariana Erden away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.41 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montana attack 1.59 + Kariana Erden defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.50

Kariana Erden attack 1.09 + Montana defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Montana scores more

51%

level

26%

Kariana Erden scores more

23%

Montana at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Montana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff