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Raufoss vs Øygarden — 1. Division 2018

Raufoss
Raufoss
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Øygarden
Øygarden
11/4/20201. Division1. Division · Round 25NAMMO stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Raufoss57%
×Draw20%
Øygarden23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raufoss
2.29
Øygarden
1.39

Raufoss creates 65% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 15 away

creates per match

Raufoss
1.50
Øygarden
1.33

allows per match

Raufoss
1.44
Øygarden
3.07

finishing

Raufoss+0.00on par
Øygarden+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raufoss ↓

Øygarden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Raufoss or draw
77%
Raufoss or Øygarden
80%
Draw or Øygarden
43%

Winning margin

Raufoss wins by 2+
36%
Øygarden wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Raufoss 1+ goals
90%
Raufoss 2+ goals
66%
Raufoss 3+ goals
40%
Øygarden 1+ goals
75%
Øygarden 2+ goals
40%
Øygarden 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Raufoss (draw refunded)
72%
Øygarden (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raufoss at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.44 · 112 matches

Øygarden away — creates 1.33, concedes 3.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raufoss attack 1.50 + Øygarden defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.29

Øygarden attack 1.33 + Raufoss defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Raufoss scores more
57%
level
20%
Øygarden scores more
23%

Raufoss at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Raufoss will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Raufoss 1–2 Øygarden

Øygarden beat Raufoss 2-1 in 1. Division on November 4, 2020.

The match was played at NAMMO stadion in Raufoss.