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Raufoss vs Stromsgodset — 1. Division 2026

Raufoss
Raufoss
Preview
15:00
Stromsgodset
Stromsgodset
9/20/20261. Division1. Division · Round 23NAMMO Stadion
45%
Stromsgodset
model favours
33%21%45%

Both sides lean high-scoring (78% and 70% over 2.5)

brightest fact of this match

1–2
likely score
72%
over 2.5 goals
71%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Raufoss33%
×Draw21%
Stromsgodset45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raufoss
1.71
Stromsgodset
2.02

Stromsgodset creates 18% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 7 away

creates per match

Raufoss
1.42
Stromsgodset
2.71

allows per match

Raufoss
1.34
Stromsgodset
2.00

finishing

Raufoss+0.00on par
Stromsgodset+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 72Under: 2872%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 71No: 2971%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raufoss ↓

Stromsgodset →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Raufoss or draw
55%
Raufoss or Stromsgodset
79%
Draw or Stromsgodset
67%

Winning margin

Raufoss wins by 2+
16%
Stromsgodset wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Raufoss 1+ goals
82%
Raufoss 2+ goals
51%
Raufoss 3+ goals
24%
Stromsgodset 1+ goals
87%
Stromsgodset 2+ goals
60%
Stromsgodset 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Raufoss (draw refunded)
42%
Stromsgodset (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raufoss at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.34 · 99 matches

Stromsgodset away — creates 2.71, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raufoss attack 1.42 + Stromsgodset defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.71

Stromsgodset attack 2.71 + Raufoss defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Raufoss scores more
33%
level
21%
Stromsgodset scores more
45%

Stromsgodset at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Stromsgodset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 78% of Raufoss’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Raufoss score first in only 28% of matches
  • Stromsgodset have scored in 8 games running
  • 70% of Stromsgodset’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Stromsgodset have won 3 of the last 4 meetings
  • Both teams score in 72% of Raufoss’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Raufoss
WLWLL
Stromsgodset
LDDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Raufoss vs Stromsgodset — Match Preview

Raufoss face Stromsgodset on September 20, 2026 in this 1. Division fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Raufoss host Stromsgodset at NAMMO Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.