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Raufoss vs Nest-Sotra — 1. Division 2018

Raufoss
Raufoss
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Nest-Sotra
Nest-Sotra
9/1/20191. Division1. Division · Round 21NAMMO stadion (Raufoss)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Raufoss41%
×Draw25%
Nest-Sotra34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raufoss
1.48
Nest-Sotra
1.33

Raufoss creates 11% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 31 away

creates per match

Raufoss
1.50
Nest-Sotra
1.23

allows per match

Raufoss
1.44
Nest-Sotra
1.45

finishing

Raufoss+0.00on par
Nest-Sotra+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raufoss ↓

Nest-Sotra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Raufoss or draw
66%
Raufoss or Nest-Sotra
75%
Draw or Nest-Sotra
59%

Winning margin

Raufoss wins by 2+
20%
Nest-Sotra wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Raufoss 1+ goals
77%
Raufoss 2+ goals
43%
Raufoss 3+ goals
19%
Nest-Sotra 1+ goals
74%
Nest-Sotra 2+ goals
38%
Nest-Sotra 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Raufoss (draw refunded)
55%
Nest-Sotra (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raufoss at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.44 · 112 matches

Nest-Sotra away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.45 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raufoss attack 1.50 + Nest-Sotra defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.48

Nest-Sotra attack 1.23 + Raufoss defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Raufoss scores more
41%
level
25%
Nest-Sotra scores more
34%

Raufoss at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Raufoss will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Raufoss 2–1 Nest-Sotra

Raufoss beat Nest-Sotra 2-1 in 1. Division on September 1, 2019.

The match was played at NAMMO stadion (Raufoss).