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Raufoss vs Moss — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Raufoss
Raufoss
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Moss
Moss
J. S. Selnaes 74'
A. Rogulj 64' (pen), 32'
T. Jakobsen 59'
S. Gronli 58'
P. Andersen 10'
2/27/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Raufoss62%
×Draw20%
Moss18%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raufoss
2.15
Moss
1.06

Raufoss creates 103% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

creates per match

Raufoss
2.11
Moss
1.00

allows per match

Raufoss
1.11
Moss
2.18

finishing

Raufoss+0.00on par
Moss+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raufoss ↓

Moss →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Raufoss or draw
82%
Raufoss or Moss
80%
Draw or Moss
38%

Winning margin

Raufoss wins by 2+
39%
Moss wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Raufoss 1+ goals
88%
Raufoss 2+ goals
63%
Raufoss 3+ goals
36%
Moss 1+ goals
65%
Moss 2+ goals
29%
Moss 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Raufoss (draw refunded)
78%
Moss (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raufoss at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Moss away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raufoss attack 2.11 + Moss defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.15

Moss attack 1.00 + Raufoss defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Raufoss scores more
62%
level
20%
Moss scores more
18%

Raufoss at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Raufoss will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
P. Andersen
32'
A. Rogulj
58'
S. Gronli
59'
T. Jakobsen
64'
A. RoguljPenalty
74'
J. S. Selnaes
Raufoss
Moss
Tom Dent
Manager: Tom Dent
Martin Nesselquist Ole
Manager: Martin Nesselquist Ole

Raufoss 3 – 3 Moss

Raufoss and Moss drew 3-3 in Friendlies Clubs on February 27, 2026.

Goals: P. Andersen (10'), A. Rogulj (32', 64' pen), S. Gronli (58'), T. Jakobsen (59'), J. S. Selnaes (74').