Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Raufoss II vs Sogndal II — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Raufoss II
Raufoss II
FT
0 – 0
Sogndal II
Sogndal II
5/14/20233. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 6NAMMO stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Raufoss II43%
×Draw19%
Sogndal II38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raufoss II
2.41
Sogndal II
2.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

creates per match

Raufoss II
1.50
Sogndal II
1.46

allows per match

Raufoss II
3.08
Sogndal II
3.31

finishing

Raufoss II+0.00on par
Sogndal II+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raufoss II ↓

Sogndal II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–34%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Raufoss II or draw
62%
Raufoss II or Sogndal II
81%
Draw or Sogndal II
57%

Winning margin

Raufoss II wins by 2+
25%
Sogndal II wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Raufoss II 1+ goals
91%
Raufoss II 2+ goals
69%
Raufoss II 3+ goals
43%
Sogndal II 1+ goals
90%
Sogndal II 2+ goals
66%
Sogndal II 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Raufoss II (draw refunded)
53%
Sogndal II (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raufoss II at home — creates 1.50, concedes 3.08 · 26 matches

Sogndal II away — creates 1.46, concedes 3.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raufoss II attack 1.50 + Sogndal II defence 3.31 → ÷2 → 2.41

Sogndal II attack 1.46 + Raufoss II defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Raufoss II scores more
43%
level
19%
Sogndal II scores more
38%

Raufoss II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Raufoss II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 2: Raufoss II 0–0 Sogndal II

Raufoss II and Sogndal II drew 0-0 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on May 14, 2023.

The match was played at NAMMO stadion in Raufoss.