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Raufoss II vs HamKam II — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Raufoss II
Raufoss II
FT
3 – 3
HamKam II
HamKam II
4/11/20233. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 1NAMMO stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Raufoss II34%
×Draw20%
HamKam II46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raufoss II
2.02
HamKam II
2.35

HamKam II creates 16% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

creates per match

Raufoss II
1.50
HamKam II
1.62

allows per match

Raufoss II
3.08
HamKam II
2.54

finishing

Raufoss II+0.00on par
HamKam II+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raufoss II ↓

HamKam II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Raufoss II or draw
54%
Raufoss II or HamKam II
80%
Draw or HamKam II
66%

Winning margin

Raufoss II wins by 2+
18%
HamKam II wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Raufoss II 1+ goals
87%
Raufoss II 2+ goals
60%
Raufoss II 3+ goals
33%
HamKam II 1+ goals
90%
HamKam II 2+ goals
68%
HamKam II 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Raufoss II (draw refunded)
43%
HamKam II (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raufoss II at home — creates 1.50, concedes 3.08 · 26 matches

HamKam II away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raufoss II attack 1.50 + HamKam II defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.02

HamKam II attack 1.62 + Raufoss II defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Raufoss II scores more
34%
level
20%
HamKam II scores more
46%

HamKam II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "HamKam II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 2: Raufoss II 3–3 HamKam II

Raufoss II and HamKam II drew 3-3 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on April 11, 2023.

The match was played at NAMMO stadion in Raufoss.