Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Raufoss II vs Funnefoss / Vormsund — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Raufoss II
Raufoss II
FT
3 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Funnefoss / Vormsund
Funnefoss / Vormsund
6/17/20233. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 10NAMMO stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Raufoss II36%
×Draw19%
Funnefoss / Vormsund45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raufoss II
2.21
Funnefoss / Vormsund
2.46

Funnefoss / Vormsund creates 11% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

creates per match

Raufoss II
1.50
Funnefoss / Vormsund
1.85

allows per match

Raufoss II
3.08
Funnefoss / Vormsund
2.92

finishing

Raufoss II+0.00on par
Funnefoss / Vormsund+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raufoss II ↓

Funnefoss / Vormsund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Raufoss II or draw
55%
Raufoss II or Funnefoss / Vormsund
81%
Draw or Funnefoss / Vormsund
64%

Winning margin

Raufoss II wins by 2+
20%
Funnefoss / Vormsund wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Raufoss II 1+ goals
89%
Raufoss II 2+ goals
65%
Raufoss II 3+ goals
38%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 1+ goals
91%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 2+ goals
70%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Raufoss II (draw refunded)
45%
Funnefoss / Vormsund (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raufoss II at home — creates 1.50, concedes 3.08 · 26 matches

Funnefoss / Vormsund away — creates 1.85, concedes 2.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raufoss II attack 1.50 + Funnefoss / Vormsund defence 2.92 → ÷2 → 2.21

Funnefoss / Vormsund attack 1.85 + Raufoss II defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Raufoss II scores more
36%
level
19%
Funnefoss / Vormsund scores more
45%

Funnefoss / Vormsund at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Funnefoss / Vormsund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Raufoss II vs Funnefoss / Vormsund

Funnefoss / Vormsund beat Raufoss II 5-3 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on June 17, 2023.

The match was played at NAMMO stadion in Raufoss.