Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Raufoss II vs Brumunddal — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Raufoss II
Raufoss II
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Brumunddal
Brumunddal
4/25/20223. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Girone 2 - 3NAMMO stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Raufoss II36%
×Draw20%
Brumunddal44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raufoss II
2.09
Brumunddal
2.33

Brumunddal creates 11% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

creates per match

Raufoss II
1.50
Brumunddal
1.58

allows per match

Raufoss II
3.08
Brumunddal
2.69

finishing

Raufoss II+0.00on par
Brumunddal+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raufoss II ↓

Brumunddal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Raufoss II or draw
56%
Raufoss II or Brumunddal
80%
Draw or Brumunddal
64%

Winning margin

Raufoss II wins by 2+
19%
Brumunddal wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Raufoss II 1+ goals
88%
Raufoss II 2+ goals
62%
Raufoss II 3+ goals
34%
Brumunddal 1+ goals
90%
Brumunddal 2+ goals
67%
Brumunddal 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Raufoss II (draw refunded)
45%
Brumunddal (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raufoss II at home — creates 1.50, concedes 3.08 · 26 matches

Brumunddal away — creates 1.58, concedes 2.69 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raufoss II attack 1.50 + Brumunddal defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.09

Brumunddal attack 1.58 + Raufoss II defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Raufoss II scores more
36%
level
20%
Brumunddal scores more
44%

Brumunddal at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Brumunddal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Raufoss II vs Brumunddal

Raufoss II beat Brumunddal 4-2 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on April 25, 2022.

The match was played at NAMMO stadion in Raufoss.