Rathfriland 2–3 Moyola Park: Result & Stats

Rathfriland

FT

2 – 3

Moyola Park

3/8/2025

League #561 · Round 8Iveagh Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Rathfriland49%

×Draw23%

Moyola Park28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RathfrilandExpected goals in this matchMoyola Park

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.29

Rathfriland

1.80

Moyola Park

1.29

Rathfriland creates 40% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 32 away

1.67

creates per match

1.25

1.33

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Rathfriland

1.67

Moyola Park

1.25

allows per match

Rathfriland

1.33

Moyola Park

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rathfriland+0.00on par

Moyola Park+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rathfriland ↓

Moyola Park →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Rathfriland or draw

72%

Rathfriland or Moyola Park

77%

Draw or Moyola Park

51%

Winning margin

Rathfriland wins by 2+

27%

Moyola Park wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Rathfriland 1+ goals

83%

Rathfriland 2+ goals

54%

Rathfriland 3+ goals

27%

Moyola Park 1+ goals

72%

Moyola Park 2+ goals

37%

Moyola Park 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Rathfriland (draw refunded)

64%

Moyola Park (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rathfriland at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Moyola Park away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.94 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rathfriland attack 1.67 + Moyola Park defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.80

Moyola Park attack 1.25 + Rathfriland defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Rathfriland scores more

49%

level

23%

Moyola Park scores more

28%

Rathfriland at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Rathfriland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff