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Ratchaburi vs Warin Chamrap — FA Cup 2018

Ratchaburi
Ratchaburi
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Warin Chamrap
Warin Chamrap
11/2/2022FA CupFA Cup · 2nd RoundDragon Solar Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ratchaburi94%
×Draw4%
Warin Chamrap2%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ratchaburi
4.79
Warin Chamrap
0.69

Ratchaburi creates 594% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 3 away

creates per match

Ratchaburi
3.57
Warin Chamrap
0.67

allows per match

Ratchaburi
0.71
Warin Chamrap
6.00

finishing

Ratchaburi+0.00on par
Warin Chamrap+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Over
  • Over89
  • Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ratchaburi ↓

Warin Chamrap →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–12%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–14%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–012%
4–18%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (12%) · grid covers 60% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
97%3%2.5
89%11%3.5
74%26%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

Ratchaburi or draw
98%
Ratchaburi or Warin Chamrap
96%
Draw or Warin Chamrap
6%

Winning margin

Ratchaburi wins by 2+
84%
Warin Chamrap wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Ratchaburi 1+ goals
99%
Ratchaburi 2+ goals
94%
Ratchaburi 3+ goals
82%
Warin Chamrap 1+ goals
50%
Warin Chamrap 2+ goals
15%
Warin Chamrap 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Ratchaburi (draw refunded)
98%
Warin Chamrap (draw refunded)
2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ratchaburi at home — creates 3.57, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Warin Chamrap away — creates 0.67, concedes 6.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ratchaburi attack 3.57 + Warin Chamrap defence 6.00 → ÷2 → 4.79

Warin Chamrap attack 0.67 + Ratchaburi defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 94%?"

Ratchaburi scores more
94%
level
4%
Warin Chamrap scores more
2%

Ratchaburi at 94% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 94% does not mean "Ratchaburi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Ratchaburi 4–1 Warin Chamrap

Ratchaburi beat Warin Chamrap 4-1 in FA Cup on November 2, 2022.

The match was played at Dragon Solar Park in Ratchaburi.