Ratchaburi 3–1 Thai Honda FC: Result & Stats

Ratchaburi

3 – 1

Thai Honda FC

8/7/2019

FA Cup · Quarter-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ratchaburi71%

×Draw16%

Thai Honda FC13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RatchaburiExpected goals in this matchThai Honda FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.62

1.02

Ratchaburi

2.62

Thai Honda FC

1.02

Ratchaburi creates 157% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 3 away

3.57

creates per match

1.33

0.71

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Ratchaburi

3.57

Thai Honda FC

1.33

allows per match

Ratchaburi

0.71

Thai Honda FC

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ratchaburi+0.00on par

Thai Honda FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ratchaburi ↓

Thai Honda FC →

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–07%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Ratchaburi or draw

87%

Ratchaburi or Thai Honda FC

84%

Draw or Thai Honda FC

29%

Winning margin

Ratchaburi wins by 2+

49%

Thai Honda FC wins by 2+

Team goals

Ratchaburi 1+ goals

93%

Ratchaburi 2+ goals

73%

Ratchaburi 3+ goals

48%

Thai Honda FC 1+ goals

64%

Thai Honda FC 2+ goals

27%

Thai Honda FC 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Ratchaburi (draw refunded)

85%

Thai Honda FC (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ratchaburi at home — creates 3.57, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Thai Honda FC away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ratchaburi attack 3.57 + Thai Honda FC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.62

Thai Honda FC attack 1.33 + Ratchaburi defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 71%?"

Ratchaburi scores more

71%

level

16%

Thai Honda FC scores more

13%

Ratchaburi at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Ratchaburi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff