Ratchaburi 1–1 Police Tero: Result & Stats

Ratchaburi

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Police Tero

S. Kannoo 83'

M. Babo 90+5'

9/11/2022

League #296 · Round 5Mitr Phol Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Ratchaburi56%

×Draw24%

Police Tero20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RatchaburiExpected goals in this matchPolice Tero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.90

Ratchaburi

1.71

Police Tero

0.90

Ratchaburi creates 90% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 12 away

1.66

creates per match

0.75

1.05

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Ratchaburi

1.66

Police Tero

0.75

allows per match

Ratchaburi

1.05

Police Tero

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ratchaburi+0.00on par

Police Tero+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ratchaburi ↓

Police Tero →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Ratchaburi or draw

80%

Ratchaburi or Police Tero

76%

Draw or Police Tero

44%

Winning margin

Ratchaburi wins by 2+

31%

Police Tero wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Ratchaburi 1+ goals

82%

Ratchaburi 2+ goals

51%

Ratchaburi 3+ goals

24%

Police Tero 1+ goals

59%

Police Tero 2+ goals

23%

Police Tero 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Ratchaburi (draw refunded)

74%

Police Tero (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ratchaburi at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.05 · 82 matches

Police Tero away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ratchaburi attack 1.66 + Police Tero defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.71

Police Tero attack 0.75 + Ratchaburi defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Ratchaburi scores more

56%

level

24%

Police Tero scores more

20%

Ratchaburi at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Ratchaburi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

23'

27'

41'

46'

S. Kannoo← P. Seaisakul

46'

Romário Baldé← K. Wattayawong

52'

H. P. Win

71'

T. Winothai← Jeong Woo-Geun

80'

W. Moonwong← S. Nonthasira

81'

S. Tudsanai← S. Panthong

81'

S. Wongsai← J. Phokhi

83'

S. Kannoo

83'

S. Kannoo↳ J. Kaewprom

85'

S. Tudsanai

90'

T. Sujarit← Alvin Fortes

90+5'

M. Babo↳ L. Ablorh

Ratchaburi

Police

22

35

16

4

3

▼

Nonthasir

77

⚽

Babo

8

▼

Karin

10

▼

Panthong

13

A

Ablorh

11

▼

Phokhi

9

▼

99

5

29

17

21

10

A

Kaewprom

7

▼

Wattayawo

31

▼

Seaisakul

37

Srisuwan

33

Derley

11

▼

Fortes

Manager: Xavi Moro

46'▲S. Kannoo←▼P. Seaisakul

46'▲Romário Baldé←▼K. Wattayawong

90'▲T. Sujarit←▼Alvin Fortes

Ratchaburi substitutes

9Kannoo14Baldé36Sujarit1Latt39Tanthatemee77Chanphet88Savake6Reed96Miprathang

Manager: R. Vivatchaichok

27'▲E. Samre←▼C. Karin

71'▲T. Winothai←▼Jeong Woo-Geun

80'▲W. Moonwong←▼S. Nonthasira

81'▲S. Tudsanai←▼S. Panthong

81'▲S. Wongsai←▼J. Phokhi

Police Tero substitutes

2Samre14Winothai24Moonwong5Tudsanai28Wongsai21Wiroonsri40Nareechan27Darbellay15Buangam