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Ratchaburi vs Navy FC — FA Cup 2018

Ratchaburi
Ratchaburiadvanced
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Navy FC
Navy FC
1/29/2025FA CupFA Cup · Round of 32Ratchaburi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Ratchaburi74%
×Draw14%
Navy FC11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ratchaburi
2.93
Navy FC
1.07

Ratchaburi creates 174% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 7 away

creates per match

Ratchaburi
3.57
Navy FC
1.43

allows per match

Ratchaburi
0.71
Navy FC
2.29

finishing

Ratchaburi+0.00on par
Navy FC+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ratchaburi ↓

Navy FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Ratchaburi or draw
89%
Ratchaburi or Navy FC
86%
Draw or Navy FC
26%

Winning margin

Ratchaburi wins by 2+
54%
Navy FC wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Ratchaburi 1+ goals
94%
Ratchaburi 2+ goals
78%
Ratchaburi 3+ goals
55%
Navy FC 1+ goals
66%
Navy FC 2+ goals
29%
Navy FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ratchaburi (draw refunded)
87%
Navy FC (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ratchaburi at home — creates 3.57, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Navy FC away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ratchaburi attack 3.57 + Navy FC defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.93

Navy FC attack 1.43 + Ratchaburi defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Ratchaburi scores more
74%
level
14%
Navy FC scores more
11%

Ratchaburi at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Ratchaburi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Ratchaburi 3–0 Navy FC

Ratchaburi beat Navy FC 3-0 in FA Cup on January 29, 2025.

The match was played at Ratchaburi Stadium in Ratchaburi.